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Parker, Wendy S.. When Climate Models Agree: The Significance of Robust Model Predictions
2011, Philosophy of Science 78 (4):579-600.
Added by: Clotilde Torregrossa, Contributed by: Simon Fokt
Abstract: This article identifies conditions under which robust predictive modeling results have special epistemic significance---related to truth, confidence, and security---and considers whether those conditions hold in the context of present-day climate modeling. The findings are disappointing. When today's climate models agree that an interesting hypothesis about future climate change is true, it cannot be inferred---via the arguments considered here anyway---that the hypothesis is likely to be true or that scientists' confidence in the hypothesis should be significantly increased or that a claim to have evidence for the hypothesis is now more secure

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